Seeking Scarcity: Money, mʌni, mUHnEE

Matthew Kulis

“A spontaneous order is a system which has developed not through the central direction or patronage of one or a few individuals but through the unintended consequences of the decisions of a myriad of individuals, each pursuing their own interests through voluntary exchange, cooperation, and trial and error.” (F.A. Hayek)

From the earliest chapters of written history, the acquisition and exchange of resources have been instrumental to the development and flourishing of society. It is through thoughtful coordination and cooperation in resource allocation and transformation that survival and technological innovation have been made possible.

Stemming from the French 'Monoie,' and tracing all the way back to 1300 from the Latin word 'Moneta,' money has well-documented historical origin. However, its significance extends much further,arguably to the dawn of civilization itself—back to the days of barter, and potentially beyond, depending on your frame of view regarding value transfer.

In the early stages of civilization, means of exchange depended on the direct exchange of goods and services. This system, known as commodity money, relied on the exchange of tangible commodities as the medium of exchange. However, an underlying inefficiency known as the “coincidence of wants” arose as a fundamental barrier to the free flow of trade. This predicament arises when at least one party in a potential transaction wants something that the other does not have. Without a mutual alignment of “resources available” and “resources desired”, no transaction; not now, nor ever could occur, creating a persistent obstacle to market efficiency. The drawbacks of this coincidence of wants underscore the importance of a medium of exchange like money which by serving as a universal intermediary, eliminates the need for direct barter and enables smoother facilitation of trade.

“If there are n goods and services to be traded, a barter market requires double the price. Five products would require twenty-five prices, which is not too bad, but 500 products would require 250,000 prices, which is far beyond what is practical for one person to keep track of. With money, there are only n prices – 500 products, 500 prices.” (Szabo, Nick- shelling out)

Money, recognized as the most liquid form of value, becomes particularly sought after during periods of uncertainty as the most saleable good. The adage "Cash is king" captures this well. In an unpredictable world, people value the unparalleled optionality that money provides , rendering it more appealing than any singular item it might be exchanged for. Only in a world with a perfectly predictable future might goods or commodities themselves serve as the sole end, rather than reliance on money as the means by which an individual may use to meet their needs. Unfortunately for many of us, we do not live in such a non-volatile, highly-predictable world, and as such, we must adapt our actions and frame of mind accordingly.

For thousands of years, money has functioned as a way to forgo present utility with the expectation of the instrument being able to provide greater future utility through exchange.

“The price for the convenience of holding money comes in the form of the forgone consumption that could have been had with it, and in the form of the forgone returns”(Ammous) -

These forgone returns might otherwise have been realized by investing in a revenue-producing vehicle, although such endeavors carry inherent risk. Hence,return on an investment(ROI) is a reward for capital invested in an endeavor with an uncertain probability of success, and therefore return is demanded in exchange for the assumed risk. Risk, in turn, is necessary for technological innovation, and the investment necessary to fund it.

Evident in all prosperous societies, the presence of a reliable medium of exchange demonstrably fosters economic growth and technological development. As a byproduct of increased efficiency, money (and the related practice of economic accounting) can be seen as another “spontaneous order” (Hayek) that has emerged and has been socially reinforced. While we still might be technically capable of bartering via commodity money, a widely accepted currency transcends the specific and immediate desires of individuals, thereby facilitating trade across diverse preferences and needs. Whether we like it or not, money forms the bedrock of capitalism, the free market, and ultimately civilization as we know it.

Specialization, spurred by technological advancements in financial, industrial, and trade practices, not only fosters economies of scale but also drives further innovation. Economies of scale enable competitive advantage that translates into profits, which can then be reinvested to acquire additional resources and spur subsequent innovation. Market participants leverage their unique strengths to increase production, often producing synergies that amplify the utility of their resources. This synergy creates new value, which can be capitalized and converted into further resource acquisition. As exemplified by developments ranging from the Turing machine (modern-day computers) to nuclear technology, innovation can either propel humanity toward prosperity or bring us to the brink of self-destruction.

“A bar of iron costs $5, made into horseshoes its worth is $12, made into needles its worth is $3500, made into balance springs for watches, its worth is $300,000. Your own value is determined also by what you are able to make of yourself.” - Unknown

To balance the optimism of the prior quote, if you replace balance spring with an MK-82 bomb,you have technological innovation capable of hindering prosperity. But don’t lose faith. There is more optimism ahead-so do read on.

Money is Time

“Money isn't a universal truth but a fluid, subjective, relative representation of value.” (Tara Mcmullin)

For many, “money” Conjures images of colorful paper or polymer notes bearing images of national leaders, (e.g., George Washington on the United States’ greenback). Understanding how this system of paper exchange became a societal norm, however, requires grappling with the very essence of value itself.

Value is inherently subjective, shaped by personal experiences and philosophical perspectives. The process of value creation involves environmental stimuli, individual encounters, and the exchange of beliefs, all of which foster idea generation and action. Keeping in mind that “rational people think at the margin” (Mankiw), these actions result in practical resource allocation, which in aggregate reflects our collective view on utility and necessity. Resource allocation is arguably THE purest form of expression, financial or otherwise. However, value is not solely determined by an asset’s utility; rather, it arises from the difficulty of acquiring that asset. In this context, difficulty can be measured as a function of the time and energy required for resource acquisition, often correlated with scarcity.

Subjectivity and intrinsic value intersect in the fact that every individual’s time is the scarcest resource they possess -one beyond the control of any government or autocratic ruler. Indeed, economics examines how society manages its limited resources (Mankiw), and no resource is more precious than time itself. We get one life, and our years are finite. (Perhaps this clarifies the so-called “collective hallucination” quandary surrounding money.)

“Its best to think of money as an information system for labor allocation.” (Elon Musk)

In modern societies, time is equated with money, serving as a measure of Aggregate Time Value Input (ATVI). Therefore, wealth transfers represent exchanges of time, as the creation of value exchangeable for financial units, “money,” necessitates resource inputs. Historically this has required human time in their acquisition or modification; hence the saying, “time is money.” However, I’d argue it's really the other way around. As such, a transfer of wealth can be viewed as a transfer of time.

Money, in essence, serves as both economic energy storage and a medium of exchange, enabling the exchange and “storage” of the time value embedded in resource acquisition and modification. Prior to the internet revolution, we’ve relied on physical token monies to represent this accrued economic energy. Instead of a singular use, the optionality of money provides vastly more possibilities for additional uses. Considering the thermodynamic constraints of a closed system, wealth transfers merely represent the reallocation of present and future access to resources, rather than the creation of entirely new resources.

Over time, value constantly flows into and out of various assets, influencing their prices and exchange rates. Those who remain unaware of this reality are at a disadvantage. Before we dive into the nuances of fiat currency versus other forms of money, however, it is essential to have a firm grasp of the underlying concept of value.